On the CO2 and noise emissions forecast in future aviation scenarios in the UK

Aircraft operations have a significant impact on local air quality, climate change, fuel consumption and noise around airports. In order to reach emission targets set by aviation agencies (e.g. ACARE), to reduce environmental impact and to ensure a sustainable future of the sector, the aviation industry is continuously investing in research and development of technologies for reducing CO2, noise and other emissions. However, different technology platforms might have different effects in terms of CO2 and noise emissions reduction, e.g. Counter-Rotating Open-Rotors (CROR) are estimated to achieve higher reduction in fuel consumption but lower noise reduction than future turbofan designs. On the basis of fuel-burn and noise reduction trend projections found in the relevant literature, this work is aimed at addressing a comparative analysis between the reduction in noise and CO2 emissions of imminent and future generations that will replace current aircraft. Based on the concept of airport noise efficiency, and for easily performing CO2 versus noise interdependencies analyses, a metric for assessing aircraft noise efficiency is defined. Moreover, CO2 and noise emissions are forecast for a number of future aviation scenarios in the UK, on the basis of different aviation growth rates and aircraft technologies.